Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 4.323720 5.108963 5.978729 7.011088 8.200410 9.524914 11.108903
2025-06-22 3.094303 4.135928 5.417958 7.100198 9.236247 11.843666 15.251237
2025-06-29 2.311828 3.437733 4.953974 7.117528 10.092369 14.000916 19.478678
2025-07-06 1.784923 2.916595 4.565228 7.093168 10.810283 16.001283 23.704052
2025-07-13 1.563930 2.767103 4.638804 7.683738 12.411277 19.343330 30.104559
2025-07-20 1.325345 2.527823 4.516803 7.934072 13.509118 22.050892 35.855649
2025-07-27 1.150285 2.350893 4.451049 8.241237 14.703572 24.995644 42.224661
2025-08-03 0.966320 2.114489 4.236058 8.251709 15.394125 27.195161 47.615695
2025-08-10 0.781866 1.833768 3.887713 7.964218 15.523295 28.469115 51.601559
2025-08-17 0.623821 1.568579 3.517354 7.569838 15.395371 29.269758 54.835833
2025-08-24 0.523978 1.404828 3.315152 7.458784 15.756181 30.926555 59.649522
2025-08-31 0.445091 1.269943 3.147142 7.385790 16.169406 32.698186 64.793899
2025-09-07 0.410185 1.236848 3.199762 7.790159 17.589364 36.492113 73.999910
2025-09-14 0.356098 1.141677 3.096309 7.845727 18.315742 39.058540 81.181254
2025-09-21 0.307232 1.047716 2.978099 7.849546 18.932694 41.468412 88.270223
2025-09-28 0.264149 0.958234 2.853416 7.817562 19.464874 43.752528 95.296751
2025-10-05 0.256639 0.974488 3.002245 8.459598 21.552351 49.353514 109.275645
2025-10-12 0.234039 0.936889 3.001252 8.731668 22.831082 53.388646 120.409524
2025-10-19 0.216063 0.909719 3.023880 9.066025 24.287994 57.913158 132.863913
2025-10-26 0.189593 0.845190 2.928090 9.077330 24.979911 60.853832 142.248133
2025-11-02 0.157737 0.750378 2.723522 8.764109 24.846365 61.976462 147.879918
2025-11-09 0.128214 0.653579 2.491199 8.334306 24.366594 62.276158 151.754929
2025-11-16 0.110114 0.596678 2.373701 8.213241 24.657286 64.344833 159.633008